Comparative Evaluation of CNN, LSTM, and GRU Architectures for Tsunami Prediction Using Seismic Data

Gregorius Airlangga(1*),

(1) Universitas Katolik Indonesia Atma Jaya, Jakarta, Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Tsunamis are among the most catastrophic natural disasters, often triggered by seismic events such as earthquakes. Accurately predicting tsunami occurrences based on seismic parameters is critical for mitigating their devastating impacts. This study investigates the application of three advanced deep learning architectures such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs), and Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) for binary classification of tsunami events using seismic data. The dataset comprises earthquake records from 1995 to 2023, including features such as magnitude, depth, latitude, longitude, Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI), and Community Internet Intensity (CDI). The models were evaluated using stratified 10-fold cross-validation and assessed across precision, recall, F1-score, accuracy, and ROC-AUC metrics. Results indicate that CNN outperformed the other architectures, achieving the highest accuracy (72.5%), precision (0.5987), and ROC-AUC (0.7838). GRU demonstrated moderate performance, balancing computational efficiency and predictive accuracy with an accuracy of 71.7% and ROC-AUC of 0.7709. LSTM, while theoretically adept at modeling temporal dependencies, showed the lowest performance due to challenges in capturing the dataset’s characteristics. The findings emphasize the importance of selecting architecture suited to the dataset’s features and task requirements. CNN’s superior performance highlights its effectiveness in spatial pattern extraction, while GRU offers a computationally efficient alternative. Future work will explore hybrid models and the integration of additional features to enhance prediction robustness. This study contributes to advancing tsunami prediction methodologies, supporting early warning systems for disaster preparedness.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30645/kesatria.v6i1.573

DOI (PDF): https://doi.org/10.30645/kesatria.v6i1.573.g568

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